MatchesEuropa League
Thursday, November 5, 10:45 AM MT · Selhurst Park, London
Crystal Palace
1899 Hoffenheimv
Working out the numbers for this match…
Comparing every price with our numbers…
Crystal Palace1899 HoffenheimComparing every price with our numbers…
Reading both teams' last games…
Thursday, November 5, 10:45 AM MT · Selhurst Park, London
Crystal Palace1899 HoffenheimEvery line for this match is open to everyone today: the Stat builder, player lines, expected lineups and more. Every other match is one free account away.
Thursday, November 5, 10:45 AM MT · Selhurst Park, London
Fair odds +297 (our chance written as odds). Good value at +229 or higher at DraftKings.
We think this happens about 31% of the time. These odds suggest 26%.
Statistical estimates, not betting advice. 21+. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Crystal Palace expected goals1899 Hoffenheim expected goalsOur model says 1.28–1.67; the sharpest sportsbook's odds imply 1.74–1.15. Shown: 70% market, 30% model, because the market already knows late team news.
Exact scores, so even the likeliest is a long shot on its own. The predicted score at the top rounds each side's expected goals (1.6–1.3), which is why it can differ from this list.
Reading both teams' last games…
Fair odds are what the odds should be once the sportsbook's built-in cut is taken out, using the sharpest sportsbook available. ▲▼ show how the odds have moved since they opened. Margin on the match result: Betclic (FR) 14.1%, Betfair 0.4%, BetMGM 6.0%, BetOnline.ag 3.5%.
Statistical estimates, not betting advice. 21+. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Crystal Palace form, latest on the rightCrystal PalaceThis season1899 HoffenheimCrystal Palace, recent results
BeşiktaşEuropa LeagueNo meetings between these sides in this competition over the last two seasons.
Nothing in the forecast that should change how this match is played.
Forecast for London, updated every few hours. Grounds with a closed roof aren't affected.
| Per game | Their games | Europa League |
|---|---|---|
| Yellow cards | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| Fouls | 28.0 | 25.1 |
| Red cards | 0.75 | 0.32 |
| Penalties | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| Goals | 3.1 | 2.7 |
From 8 games they refereed over two seasons.
C. DoucouréOutOff the roster1 startsSome impact
Zavier GozoOutOff the roster0 startsSome impact
Evann GuessandOutOff the roster1 starts0.7 shots/90Some impact
Jefferson LermaOutOff the roster3 starts1 goals1.6 shots/90Some impact
Chadi RiadOutKnee Injury1 startsSome impact
Takehiro TomiyasuOutCalf Injury3 starts0.0 shots/90Some impact
Jørgen Strand LarsenDoubtfulAnkle Injury9 starts4 goals2.4 shots/90Some impact
Ismaïla SarrDoubtfulGroin Injury3 starts0.0 shots/90Some impact
Quinten TimberDoubtfulHamstring Injury8 starts1.1 shots/90Some impact
B. ContéOutGroin Injury10 starts2 goals2.3 shots/90Some impact
Nathan De CatOutKnee Injury3 starts2.1 shots/90Some impact
V. GendreyOutAnkle Injury3 starts0.0 shots/90Some impact
A. HajdariOutFoot Injury5 starts0.4 shots/90Some impact
Robin HranáčOutKnee Injury4 starts1.4 shots/90Some impact
P. WimmerOutThigh Injury4 starts2 goals2.9 shots/90Some impact
V. CoufalDoubtfulMuscle Injury12 starts0.1 shots/90Some impactWe expect 2.9
Rated on Europa League games plus league games (47 Premier League games for Crystal Palace; 42 Bundesliga games for 1899 Hoffenheim), rescaled to Europa League levels and adjusted for league strength.
These numbers are ours alone, because sportsbooks rarely post reliable odds for these markets. So we only call it good value when the odds beat fair odds by 6% or more.
Every line and the reasons behind it are in the Stat builder.
Who we expect to start, from recent lineups, injuries and the schedule. The confirmed teams replace this about an hour before kickoff. Tap a player for why.
1899 Hoffenheim3-5-2Crystal Palace3-4-2-190% Nailed on70% Likely45% Toss-up
Crystal Palace3-4-2-1Out: Doucoure, Gozo, Guessand, Lerma, Riad, Tomiyasu
1899 Hoffenheim3-5-2Out: Conte, De Cat, Engelns, Gendrey, Hajdari, Hranac, Wimmer
How each side's numbers change when these players start and when they don't, from their league games this season and last, allowing for the opponents. Patterns, not proof.
30Started 3 of the last 10, including the last one.
14Started 3 of the last 10, including the last one.
25Started 7 of the last 10, not the last one.
44Started 8 of the last 10, not the last one.
Next in line: D. McNeil (53%), D. Henderson (32%), H. Ahanor (27%).
29Started 1 of the last 10, including the last one.
22Started 4 of the last 10, not the last one.
39Started 7 of the last 10, including the last one.
18Started 8 of the last 10, including the last one.
Next in line: F. Asllani (63%), T. Lemperle (48%), V. Coufal (37%).
