Track record

When we say something is 60% likely, it should happen about 6 times in 10. To check, we replay recent matches in every league we cover, using only what was known before each kickoff, and compare what we would have said with what happened.

Warming up…

Comparing every price with our numbers…

Track record

8,121

matches replayed

360,293

chances checked

6 of 7

markets beat the league average

By market

Each row groups chances we gave in that range. The bar is how often it actually happened; the black tick is what we said on average. Close together means honest numbers.

Match result

24,363 chances

10% more accurate than guessing the league average every time.

We saidIt happenedGames

0%–10%8%394

10%–20%16%2522

20%–30%25%9700

30%–40%33%5221

40%–50%47%3221

50%–60%55%1939

60%–70%68%+4940

70%–80%74%337

80%–90%83%78

90%–100%73%−2011

Total goals

24,363 chances

15% more accurate than guessing the league average every time.

We saidIt happenedGames

0%–10%21%+14163

10%–20%23%+71222

20%–30%29%+43125

30%–40%37%3487

40%–50%49%+43469

50%–60%57%3261

60%–70%67%2858

70%–80%76%3872

80%–90%83%2693

90%–100%91%213

Both teams to score

8,121 chances

About as accurate as guessing the league average every time.

We saidIt happenedGames

20%–30%41%+1599

30%–40%46%+10584

40%–50%50%+52057

50%–60%56%3545

60%–70%61%1661

70%–80%60%−13171

Corners

70,820 chances

24% more accurate than guessing the league average every time.

We saidIt happenedGames

10%–20%16%13793

20%–30%26%9561

30%–40%37%7861

40%–50%47%7078

50%–60%56%6892

60%–70%65%7125

70%–80%74%8022

80%–90%85%10400

90%–100%86%−488

Shots

121,224 chances

24% more accurate than guessing the league average every time.

We saidIt happenedGames

10%–20%17%22668

20%–30%28%+315914

30%–40%38%+313327

40%–50%48%12061

50%–60%57%11893

60%–70%66%12345

70%–80%76%14072

80%–90%85%18828

90%–100%87%116

Shots on target

67,338 chances

24% more accurate than guessing the league average every time.

We saidIt happenedGames

10%–20%17%13098

20%–30%27%9105

30%–40%36%7514

40%–50%47%6779

50%–60%56%6570

60%–70%66%6736

70%–80%76%7610

80%–90%86%9868

90%–100%88%58

Yellow cards

44,064 chances

25% more accurate than guessing the league average every time.

We saidIt happenedGames

10%–20%14%8919

20%–30%24%6125

30%–40%34%4985

40%–50%43%4513

50%–60%53%4271

60%–70%65%4327

70%–80%73%4805

80%–90%85%6087

90%–100%84%−632

This is a replay of past games with our current model, not a log of picks published at the time. Where our numbers ran consistently high or low, we apply a small correction to the chances on match pages. Last updated Nov 4, 2026. Past results don't guarantee future ones. Bet responsibly.

Warming up…

By market

Each row groups chances we gave in that range. The bar is how often it actually happened; the black tick is what we said on average. Close together means honest numbers.

Match result

24,363 chances

10% more accurate than guessing the league average every time.

We saidIt happenedGames

0%–10%8%394

10%–20%16%2522

20%–30%25%9700

30%–40%33%5221

40%–50%47%3221

50%–60%55%1939

60%–70%68%+4940

70%–80%74%337

80%–90%83%78

90%–100%73%−2011

Total goals

24,363 chances

15% more accurate than guessing the league average every time.

We saidIt happenedGames

0%–10%21%+14163

10%–20%23%+71222

20%–30%29%+43125

30%–40%37%3487

40%–50%49%+43469

50%–60%57%3261

60%–70%67%2858

70%–80%76%3872

80%–90%83%2693

90%–100%91%213

Both teams to score

8,121 chances

About as accurate as guessing the league average every time.

We saidIt happenedGames

20%–30%41%+1599

30%–40%46%+10584

40%–50%50%+52057

50%–60%56%3545

60%–70%61%1661

70%–80%60%−13171

Corners

70,820 chances

24% more accurate than guessing the league average every time.

We saidIt happenedGames

10%–20%16%13793

20%–30%26%9561

30%–40%37%7861

40%–50%47%7078

50%–60%56%6892

60%–70%65%7125

70%–80%74%8022

80%–90%85%10400

90%–100%86%−488

Shots

121,224 chances

24% more accurate than guessing the league average every time.

We saidIt happenedGames

10%–20%17%22668

20%–30%28%+315914

30%–40%38%+313327

40%–50%48%12061

50%–60%57%11893

60%–70%66%12345

70%–80%76%14072

80%–90%85%18828

90%–100%87%116

Shots on target

67,338 chances

24% more accurate than guessing the league average every time.

We saidIt happenedGames

10%–20%17%13098

20%–30%27%9105

30%–40%36%7514

40%–50%47%6779

50%–60%56%6570

60%–70%66%6736

70%–80%76%7610

80%–90%86%9868

90%–100%88%58

Yellow cards

44,064 chances

25% more accurate than guessing the league average every time.

We saidIt happenedGames

10%–20%14%8919

20%–30%24%6125

30%–40%34%4985

40%–50%43%4513

50%–60%53%4271

60%–70%65%4327

70%–80%73%4805

80%–90%85%6087

90%–100%84%−632